The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts 3.7% global growth in both 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9% growth for both years. IMF blamed the downward revision to rising trade tensions, higher interest rates, weakness in the Eurozone and capital outflows in key emerging markets. And while some blindly hope that what happens in Brazil, stays in Brazil, we know that when a market shakes, the reverberation is felt around the world. In mid-November, for example, the world’s largest shipping firm, Maersk, warned that trade tensions could reduce global container trade between 0.5-2% during 2019 and 2020. Business leaders are mixed about what’s taking place. Steve Odland, president and CEO of The Conference Board, told CNBC that global CEOs are seeing a bit of a slowdown outside the US, but US chief executives are telling a different story.

“The US numbers look very strong. All of the Conference Board indicators from the consumer confidence index to the leading economic indicators to the expectations index all say that the next six months expect to be very good,” said Odland.

If the crystal ball seems cloudy, try looking at the punch bowl. Only 65% of companies say they’re planning a holiday party this year, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas, a Chicago-based executive outplacement company. That’s the lowest rate since 2009, when 62% of companies said they were planning an event despite being in the grips of The Great Recession.

Businesses have completed reporting quarterly results and it’s been a mixed bag for FMCG companies, as multinationals are fighting for share with hungry upstarts that are redefining the household and personal products industry. This month, Melissa Meisel reports on several of the up and coming beauty companies that are shaking up the industry (p. 52). P&G may be under siege from relative newcomers like Harry’s, but the world’s biggest men’s grooming company will come out swinging in 2019 with several new launches (p. 40). Even the mundane hair washing process is getting a makeover, as consumers try new formulas and purchase them in new ways. Our coverage of the multibillion dollar shampoo and conditioner category starts on p. 66. Finally, while the industrial and institutional cleaning market churns along, growing 2-3% a year, industry leaders are rolling out new products to make sanitizing and disinfecting less labor intensive (p. 44).

We all know that our industry is recession-resistant, but it’s still affected by changing economic forces and global trends. 

Tom Branna
Editorial Director
[email protected]